291
FXUS62 KTBW 251948
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
248 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic remains in full
control with plenty of sunshine and this has allowed temperatures to
return to climatological normal values today after the stretch of
cooler weather in recent days. With high pressure and light flow in
place once again overnight, fog development will be the main
forecast challenge as the latest HREF probability of visibilities
less than a half mile show about 20%-30% for areas across the Nature
Coast and around 20% for southern interior areas. These values
appear to be reasonable as forecast soundings show decoupling of
boundary level winds as a solid nocturnal inversion becomes
established with the best coverage expected to occur across the
Nature Coast.  Otherwise, overnight lows will be a bit more mild
than the last couple of nights with lows in the 40s across the
Nature Coast and 50s for the remainder of the area, though still
below normal for this time of the year.

A weak upper level trough will continue to shift east of the Florida
peninsula tonight and the upper level flow will then transition to a
zonal orientation aloft into midweek. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough
and associated low pressure system will swing across the Great Lakes
region on Tuesday and drive a cold front southward towards northern
Florida by Tuesday night. However, this front will become
increasingly diffuse as it approaches Florida and will stall near
the FL/GA border before eventually lifting back north as a warm
front as another low pressure system moves northeastward across the
Ark-La-Tex region. This will keep west central and southwest Florida
in a continued dry weather pattern through mid week with a gradual
warming trend as highs will generally be a few degrees above normal
for much of the remainder of the week. A stronger frontal boundary
will then approach the area on Friday as the aforementioned low
pressure system quickly advances northeastward towards the Northeast
US and the associated upper trough deepens across the eastern CONUS.
The timing of this frontal passage on Friday remains a bit uncertain
with the ECMWF quicker than the GFS solution as the ECMWF shows the
FROPA early Friday morning through central Florida but the GFS
indicates a FROPA on Friday afternoon. Regardless of the frontal
passage timing, guidance in recent days has generally indicated
that this would be a mostly dry FROPA, though there has been a
notable uptick in both deterministic and ensemble suites for some
potential of measurable rainfall. While an NBM blended consensus
of PoPS continues to show a mostly dry frontal passage, if recent
trends continue in some global model guidance then a further
increase in PoPs may eventually be needed but for now will keep
PoPs capped at 20% to monitor further trends.

In the wake of Friday`s frontal passage, temperatures once again
return to below normal for the weekend and this will linger into
early next week as another reinforcing front appears to sweep
through early Sunday. As cool Canadian high pressure builds into
the area from the north by the weekend and into early next week,
this will also keep dry conditions in the forecast heading into
the early days of December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day with
winds around 4-7 kts. Winds decrease to less than 5 kts overnight
and with clear skies, conditions could be favorable for fog
development, particularly in interior areas where IFR conditions
or worse will be possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions will once
again return area-wide Tuesday morning after any fog burns off
with light NE winds in the morning and shifting to more NNW by the
afternoon as a weak sea breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

High pressure will remain over the region through mid week with
pleasant boating conditions across the Eastern Gulf waters. Winds
will start to increase on Thursday and become southwesterly ahead
of a cold front that is expected to arrive on Friday. The cold
front is then forecast to move through the region by Friday night
and this will be followed by strong high pressure building into
the region with breezy northwesterly winds and elevated choppy
seas leading into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

High pressure remains in control across the region accompanied by
continued dry conditions and a gradual warming trend through mid
week. Minimum RH values will be near critical levels through this
evening and could possibly approach near critical levels on
Tuesday afternoon in interior areas, though wind speeds will
remain less than 10 mph so red flag conditions are not expected.
Humidity values will then increase mid to late week as winds
becomes southwesterly ahead of a cold front that is expected to
arrive by Friday. Some rain may accompany the frontal passage, but
at this time confidence in rainfall is not high. Regardless, dry
high pressure will once again build into the region with gusty
winds and lowering humidity values into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  78  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  58  81  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  56  79  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  45  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  61  77  63  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close
NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion